Ratings

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Articles

   What is the Bayesian Resume Rating?

   Predictive and Earned Rank Systems

   The Problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix

   NFL Win/Loss Record History

   Strength of Schedule

   March Madness Bracket Scoring

   March Madness Seed History

   The Hot Hand "Fallacy"

   Mathematical Explanation of the Bayesian Resume Rating

   The Relationship Between Bayes' Theorem and P-Values

   A Typical March Madness Bracket
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Note: the 2024-2025 season will be my 10th and final season publishing rankings on this site. If you would like any "under the hood" information on how these are calculated, please contact me at [email protected]

2024 NCAA Football Bayesian Resume Ratings

Updated January 4th
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1.	Oregon	12-1	1.99
2.	Notre Dame	13-1	1.87
3.	Ohio State	12-2	1.77
4.	Penn State	13-2	1.73
5.	Texas	13-2	1.70
6.	Boise State	11-2	1.39
7.	Georgia	10-3	1.38
8.	Indiana	10-2	1.31
9.	Brigham Young	10-2	1.23
10.	Army	11-2	1.15
11.	Southern Methodist	10-3	1.13
12.	Arizona State	11-3	1.11
13.	Illinois	9-3	1.09
14.	Iowa State	10-3	1.08
15.	Mississippi	9-3	0.96
16.	Tennessee	9-3	0.96
17.	Memphis	10-2	0.95
18.	Miami (FL)	9-3	0.95
19.	Syracuse	9-3	0.94
20.	Missouri	9-3	0.93
21.	Navy	9-3	0.92
22.	Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	0.90
23.	Alabama	8-4	0.88
24.	Michigan	8-5	0.88
25.	South Carolina	8-4	0.88
26.	Clemson	9-4	0.86
27.	Louisiana State	8-4	0.85
28.	Ohio	10-3	0.82
29.	Marshall	9-3	0.81
30.	Louisville	8-4	0.78
31.	Kansas State	8-4	0.70
32.	Sam Houston	10-3	0.62
33.	Colorado	8-4	0.59
34.	Florida	7-5	0.58
35.	Duke	8-4	0.57
36.	Texas A&M	7-5	0.55
37.	Louisiana	9-4	0.51
38.	Tulane	8-5	0.49
39.	Texas Christian	8-4	0.48
40.	Minnesota	7-5	0.42
41.	Baylor	7-5	0.41
42.	Iowa	7-5	0.40
43.	Texas Tech	7-5	0.39
44.	Southern California	7-6	0.39
45.	Buffalo	8-4	0.37
46.	Miami (OH)	9-5	0.37
47.	James Madison	8-4	0.30
48.	Georgia Southern	7-5	0.29
49.	Georgia Tech	6-6	0.24
50.	Connecticut	8-4	0.23
51.	Jacksonville State	9-5	0.22
52.	Vanderbilt	6-6	0.20
53.	Nebraska	6-6	0.17
54.	Texas State	7-5	0.13
55.	Northern Illinois	7-5	0.13
56.	Boston College	6-6	0.12
57.	Oklahoma	5-7	0.11
58.	Arkansas State	7-5	0.11
59.	Arkansas	6-6	0.11
60.	East Carolina	7-5	0.11
61.	Washington State	7-5	0.11
62.	Liberty	7-4	0.09
63.	Toledo	7-5	0.09
64.	Virginia Tech	6-7	0.08
65.	Rutgers	6-6	0.07
66.	Washington	5-7	0.07
67.	Pittsburgh	6-6	0.06
68.	Colorado State	7-5	0.06
69.	UCLA	5-7	0.04
70.	Kansas	4-7	0.01
71.	Western Kentucky	7-6	-0.03
72.	South Alabama	6-6	-0.08
73.	West Virginia	5-7	-0.13
74.	Bowling Green State	6-6	-0.14
75.	South Florida	6-6	-0.15
76.	Texas-San Antonio	6-6	-0.15
77.	Cincinnati	4-7	-0.20
78.	San Jose State	6-6	-0.21
79.	Old Dominion	5-7	-0.22
80.	Appalachian State	4-6	-0.24
81.	Michigan State	4-7	-0.24
82.	North Carolina State	5-7	-0.25
83.	Wisconsin	4-7	-0.29
84.	Virginia	4-7	-0.30
85.	Auburn	4-7	-0.32
86.	North Carolina	5-7	-0.32
87.	California	5-7	-0.37
88.	Coastal Carolina	5-7	-0.38
89.	North Texas	5-7	-0.38
90.	Utah	4-7	-0.39
91.	Houston	4-8	-0.39
92.	Kentucky	3-8	-0.39
93.	Charlotte	4-7	-0.44
94.	Fresno State	5-7	-0.44
95.	Western Michigan	5-7	-0.46
96.	Maryland	3-8	-0.48
97.	Central Florida	3-8	-0.50
98.	Louisiana-Monroe	4-7	-0.51
99.	Oregon State	4-7	-0.55
100.	Northwestern	3-8	-0.56
101.	New Mexico	5-6	-0.57
102.	Rice	3-8	-0.62
103.	Air Force	4-7	-0.63
104.	Arizona	3-8	-0.64
105.	Wake Forest	3-8	-0.65
106.	Eastern Michigan	4-7	-0.68
107.	Akron	3-8	-0.74
108.	Hawaii	3-7	-0.78
109.	Stanford	2-9	-0.79
110.	Wyoming	3-8	-0.81
111.	Florida International	4-7	-0.85
112.	Troy	3-8	-0.86
113.	Louisiana Tech	4-8	-0.90
114.	Central Michigan	3-8	-0.92
115.	Utah State	3-8	-0.93
116.	Oklahoma State	2-9	-0.94
117.	Georgia State	2-9	-0.97
118.	Temple	3-9	-1.00
119.	Texas-El Paso	3-8	-1.03
120.	Alabama-Birmingham	2-9	-1.09
121.	Ball State	2-9	-1.12
122.	Florida State	1-10	-1.13
123.	Mississippi State	1-10	-1.18
124.	Nevada	2-10	-1.19
125.	Kennesaw State	2-9	-1.27
126.	Florida Atlantic	2-9	-1.30
127.	Middle Tennessee State	2-9	-1.30
128.	San Diego State	2-9	-1.31
129.	New Mexico State	2-9	-1.33
130.	Tulsa	2-9	-1.36
131.	Purdue	0-11	-1.56
132.	Massachusetts	0-10	-1.72
133.	Kent State	0-11	-1.85

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